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Tariff Risk Alert: BNM flags US tariff headwinds. GDP maintained at 4.4–4.9% (Q1 2025). Budget 2026 total expenditure: RM419.2 billion — historic high.
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GDP GROWTH4.4–4.9%▲ Q1 2025 INFLATION1.8%▲ Stable UNEMPLOYMENT3.3%▼ Recovered OPR3.00%HOLD BUDGET 2026RM419.2B▲ 4.2% DEFICIT-3.8% GDPImproving GDP GROWTH4.4–4.9%▲ Q1 2025 INFLATION1.8%▲ Stable UNEMPLOYMENT3.3%▼ Recovered OPR3.00%HOLD BUDGET 2026RM419.2B▲ 4.2% DEFICIT-3.8% GDPImproving
Total Expenditure
RM419.2B
▲ +4.2% YoY
📑 MOF Budget 2026
GDP Growth Forecast
4.4–4.9%
◆ On Track
🏦 BNM Q1 2025
Inflation Rate
1.8%
▲ Stable
📊 Trading Economics Jun 2025
Fiscal Deficit
-3.8%
▲ Narrowing
📑 MOF Fiscal Policy 2025
Budget 2026 — Where It Goes
RM419B
TOTAL
2026
Emoluments109.4B26.1%
Development81.0B19.3%
Debt Service58.3B13.9%
Subsidies49.0B11.7%
Retirement42.3B10.1%
Supplies40.3B9.6%
Others38.4B9.2%
Ministry Allocations (RM Billion)
GDP Growth
4.4–4.9%
Resilient domestic demand. BNM flags US tariff headwinds as key downside risk to exports.
🏦 BNM Q1 2025
Inflation (CPI)
1.8%
Well within BNM comfort band (2-3%). Targeted fuel subsidy rationalisation managed carefully.
📊 Trading Economics
Unemployment
3.3%
Fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Budget 2026 targets high-value job creation and reskilling.
📊 Trading Economics

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